It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
